US Soccer: Qualifying Cycle for World Cup 2014 Brazil

The World Cup in South Africa is all in the books, and the United States team is going to do what it always does. Rebuild, and have another go at it. It’s the human way - things get torn down or destroyed, and we rebuild them.

The US squad for the next World Cup, to be held in Brazil in 2014, is likely to be one that is very different from the one we know today. Although being over 30 years-old isn’t a death sentence in football, the extra mileage does make it difficult to quickly recover (or get up from) from those knocks that weren’t such a big deal when you were 22.

Let’s use our crystal ball, and see what things might be like in 2014 for the good ol’ US of A.

Carlos Bocanegra and Steve Cherundolo are 31. Jay DeMerit is 30. 8 other players in the 2010 World Cup squad for America will be over 30 when the 2014 finals in Brazil roll around. You would imagine that Landon Donovan, fitness permitting (at age 32), will make an attempt to feature in a 4th World Cup Finals. Donovan is a generational talent, and I can think of no replacement for him in the American team at this time. So if he is fit, it’s a safe bet that he will be there, provided that the United States qualifies. The same may apply to Dempsey who will be 31 in 2014.

Goalkeeper:

I can’t think that it will be anyone other than Tim Howard in the number 1 shirt, unless he is ill or injured. Brad Guzan (28 in Summer 2014) and Chris Seitz are also candidates for the job, and/or backing up Howard.

Defenders:

Of the group that went to South Africa it is possible that none of them will play in the next World Cup Finals. So, you have to wonder if maybe it will look something like choosing 7 from this lot:

Chad Marshall, Heath Pearce, Drew Moor, Edgar Castillo, Etchu Tabe, Jamil Fearrington, Erik Hort, Eric Lichaj, Ryan Miller, Jay Needham, Michael Orozco, Michael Parkhurst, Jonathan Spector, Zak Whitbread, Marvell Wynne Jr., Dasan Robinson, Tim Ward, Carlos Borja, Jonathan Bornstein, Eric Brunner, Kyle Davies, George John, Mike Chabala, Ryan Cochrane, A.J. De La Garza, Sean Franklin, Omar Gonzalez, Kevin Alston, Seth Sinovic, Jeremy Hall, Tim Ream, Tony Beltran, Bobby Burling, Ike Opara, Jason Hernandez, Patrick Ianni, Nathan Sturgis, Tyson Wahl

Midfield:

From: Michael Bradley, Clint Dempsey, José Torres, Stuart Holden, Maurice Edu, Benny Feilhaber, Landon Donovan, Robbie Rogers, Sacha Kljestan, Alejandro Bedoya, Eddie Gaven, Dax McCarty, Freddy Adu,

Forwards:

From: Jozy Altidore, Robbie Findley, Eddie Johnson, Charlie Davies, Mike Grella, Marcus Tracy

If that seems like a long list of defenders, it’s because I think the United States has to almost completely rebuild their back four due to the old guard aging out. So it’s a matter of who is going to step up and play the best at defense.

Generally the optimum age for outfield players seems to be 24-28 years old. This is usually the best window in terms of fitness and experience - any older and fitness tends to dip, any younger and inexperience may cause a shortfall in performance on the world stage. A few players play in world cups past the age of 30, especially goalkeepers who have a much harder time amassing their match experience.

Stay tuned…

New York Rangers: The Off-Season to Date

The NHL off-season. Free agents leave, free agents re-sign. Players get traded, and then we see what remains.

The Rangers have re-signed 7 of their free agent players.

The Rangers added 8 new players through trade or free agency.

The Rangers lost 12 players to trade or free agency.

The most notable free agent that has not yet re-signed with the club is defenseman Marc Staal, who is arguably the Rangers’ best and most consistent defenseman. Let’s hope that Glen Sather manages to re-sign Staal…because if he doesn’t, I don’t think that he has much longer before he gets the sack.

Notable free agents that have re-signed with the Rangers are: Vaclav Prospal and Dan Girardi.

Notable additions to the Rangers are goaltender Martin Biron, enforcer Derek Boogaard, and the entry-level signings of World Junior Championship star center Derek Stepan, and defenseman Ryan McDonagh.

Noteworthy players leaving the Ranger organization (through trade or free agency) are defenseman Ilkka Heikkinen (HC Sibir Novosibirsk of the KHL), enforcer Jody Shelley (who signed with arch-rival Philadelphia for 3 years), Olli Jokinen (who signed on for another run in Calgary), defensemen Corey Potter (Pittsburgh), Bobby Sanguinetti (Carolina for two draft picks), forwards P.A. Parenteau (to the Islanders), Corey Locke (Ottawa), and goaltender Steve Valiquette (CSKA Moscow of the KHL).

True statement: The Rangers as an organization have gotten a lot younger, and a lot meaner.

True statement: With the addition of Biron, King Henrik won’t have to play 70 matches this year.

Stay tuned…

New York Rangers: Better Know a Ranger on the Bubble - Corey Locke

Corey Locke was highly motivated to score a bunch in the AHL this year. So motivated in fact, that he finished third in scoring in the league with 31 goals and 54 assists for 85 points. Locke is at the end of an entry-level contract @ $500K/year (AHL salary $275K/year). The 85 point season is Locke’s way of saying he’d like to become a millionaire. Wait a minute, the Rangers need scoring...nah, it’s too simple, Slats (Rangers general manager Glen Sather) will never go for it. Locke is a slightly built player at 5’ 9” and 189 pounds. The Toronto native is also a pacy skater, with deadly accuracy on shots and passes.

Prediction: Rangers retain Locke

The Rangers would be foolish to overlook scoring when it’s right under their noses. If you look at Locke’s resumé he scored a silly amount of points in junior (132 goals, and 180 assists for 312 points in 186 matches with the OHL’s Ottawa 67’s. That’s a rate of 1.7 ppg.), and has produced consistently (466 matches, 141 goals, 252 assists for 393 points with Hamilton, Houston, and Hartford - an average of 0.84 points a game.) as a professional in 6 AHL seasons. I think it’s fair to label this guy a veteran, at the age of 26. Oddly, he has only played in 4 NHL matches, one with Montreal, and 3 last season with the Rangers. Why has no one given him the better part of an NHL season to prove himself at the top level? Do the front offices in Montreal and New York know something we don’t about Locke? His record indicates that all this guy does is score. However, now that he’s 26, it’s going to take some grown up professional player dollars to sign him. You get the feeling that if the Rangers don’t want to make him a millionaire, another club surely will be happy to oblige him.

New York Rangers: Better Know a Ranger on the Bubble - Marc Staal

Should Glen Sather fail to re-sign Marc Staal, things could get bad - very bad on Broadway. Staal is acknowledged to be one of the top shut-down defenders in the NHL. Staal very quietly and efficiently does his job. At the end of the last season, he also began to score some goals. Staal is also very young and at the end of a contract that paid him $765,000. This makes him a restricted free agent and places him in a position to sign a multi-year big money NHL contract. The question is, how much is Sather willing to part with to keep his star young defenseman?

Staal by the numbers: 13 goals, 39 assists for 52 points in 244 matches in 3 full seasons with the Rangers. Staal played 80 matches of 82 his first season, and in the last two he has played in all 82. In his NHL career he is also +6 with 150 minutes in penalties.

Staal is young (23 years-old), durable, calm and skillful.

Prediction: Rangers will retain Staal...provided they have the cap space to do so.

Staal, and his agent NHL Hall of Famer Bobby Orr, will see to it that the new contract reflects Staal’s ability and accomplishments. The big question is, now that the Rangers have developed him, can they afford what they have created? The bigger question is, can the Rangers afford not to sign him?

At this writing, Staal is in negotiations with the Rangers. Rangers’ GM Sather has stated in the press that the two sides are far apart on salary, going so far as to describe the discrepancy as a “chasm”.

Larry Brooks of the New York Post recently reported:

“...Our information in this case is that the Blueshirts have made an equitable offer to the defenseman in the range of four years for $14 million, but that his agent — a fellow who once played named Bobby Orr — is seeking substantially more than that...”

There are also rumors that Staal is seeking a 1 year deal, so that he can then be eligible at the end for salary arbitration.

If the Rangers fail to re-sign Staal, it doesn’t say much about an organization that has repeatedly stated that it is committed to rebuilding through youth within the organization. In fact, losing Stall would effectively show the Rangers’ management to be hypocrites of the highest order.

New York Rangers: Better Know a Ranger on the Bubble - Mike Sauer

You get the feeling that it’s going to be now or never for Mike Sauer. The Minnesota native has faithfully toiled for 3 seasons with the Hartford Wolf Pack, awaiting his chance to finally make the Rangers squad. By the numbers, Sauer has played in 177 matches for the Wolf Pack, totaling 13 goals, 33 assists, for 46 points, +29, and served 160 minutes in Penalties. Sauer made $62.5K (His AHL salary, had he played for the Rangers it would have been $600K) this last season, and now his contract is up.

By all accounts Sauer is a gritty and hard-working defenseman, sacrificing scoring chances and flashy play for disciplined positioning and delivering punishing body checks with his 220 lb. frame. Despite this, he has only played 3 matches for the New York Rangers.

The Rangers now have 10 prospects at defense, 11 if you count Friday’s drafting of Dylan McIlrath, a punishing, uncompromising, gritty, tenacious competitor who also skates very well and possesses the potential for great offensive upside. Space could be made for Sauer on the Rangers, but you have to wonder if Sauer is the sort of player that head coach John Tortorella wants in his team.

Sauer’s achievements seem to speak for themselves, but in the endgame, Sauer’s work ethic and discipline may have nothing to do with whether he stays in the Rangers organization or moves on as a restricted free agent.

Prediction: The Rangers let Sauer test free agency.

Word on the street is that Torts wants a defenseman who will jump into the rush and is comfortable pinching for 50/50 pucks in the attacking zone. Sauer is not this type of defenseman. Instead Sauer is known to play a more conservative and disciplined game in the model of the stay-home defenseman. The decision will have less to do with Sauer’s actual skill and commitment, and more to do with the style of the current Rangers’ head coach. Sauer will play in the NHL, the question is...will it be with the Rangers?

New York Rangers: Better Know a Ranger on the Bubble - Dan Girardi

The 26 year-old veteran defenseman has played all 82 matches for the Rangers these last three seasons. He is now a restricted free agent. His salary last season was $1.55M.

Girardi is an excellent and consistent competitor. He packs his lunchpail and stays until the work is done. He is a vital part of the Rangers’ defense corps. Steady if unspectacular, Girardi gets the job done. He makes reasonable offensive contributions, and does a good job of staying out of the penalty box.

He has little standing in the way of his recommendation, and I have no doubts that there are a ton of teams who would love to add him as a free agent pickup.

Prediction:

Rangers opt to retain Girardi.

Barring a ludicrous salary demand from his agent, Girardi and his proven work record will remain in Manhattan to the delight of all. The Rangers should be prepared to offer him a substantial salary increase. Not a silly increase, but a substantial one. If the Rangers aren’t willing to do that, I can think of a number of teams with salary cap room that would be happy to pay what Girardi’s agent is asking. The bargaining leverage, although slight, rests with Girardi and his agent. Although the Rangers organization has great depth at defense Bobby Sanguinetti only played 5 matches for the Blueshirts last year and Corey Potter only played in 3. This says that the club, at least at the end of last season, weren’t completely sold on Sanguinetti and Potter as regular blueliners for the Rangers while young Mike Sauer wasn’t sent for at all. At the end of training camp this year though, it could be a very different situation as amateur defense prospects Ryan McDonagh and Tomas Kundratek will be looking to earn entry-level professional contracts with the Rangers.