Tuesday, July 24, 2012

New York Rangers: Should I Stay or Should I Go? 2012

Catching you up after summer holiday.  The Rangers have done some free agent shopping, lost a few free agents, and made a couple of trades.  Here are the Rangers’ additions and subtractions.



PLAYERS OUT

M. Zuccarello, F  Signed with Mettalurg Magnitogorsk of the KHL for 1 year
C. Johnson, G      Signed with Phoenix Coyotes
B. Prust, F            Signed with Montreal
J. Mitchell, F       Signed with Colorado
J. Woywitka, D   Signed with St. Louis
R. Fedotenko, F  Signed with Philadelphia
A. Deveaux, F      Signed with Florida
J. Scott, D            Signed with Buffalo
C. Wellman, F     Traded to Florida
B. Dubinsky, F    Traded to Columbus
A. Anisimov, F    Traded to Columbus
T. Erixon, D        Traded to Columbus

PLAYERS IN

A. Asham, F     From Pittsburgh
M. Haley, F      From NY Islanders
T. Pyatt, F        From Phoenix
J. Halpern, F   From Washington
B. Segal, F        From Tampa Bay
S. Collins, D     From Washinton
R. Nash, F        Traded from Columbus
S. Delisle, D     Traded from Columbus

DRAFT PICKS ADDED
2014 5th round for Casey Wellman from Florida

DRAFT PICKS TRADED
2013 1st round to Columbus, for Rick Nash and Steven Delisle

Returning to regular Should I Stay or Should I Go format tomorrow.  We'll look at the restricted free agent situations of defenseman Michael DelZotto and Anton Stralman. 

Monday, June 11, 2012

EURO 2012 POLAND/UKRAINE

The tournament thus far:

Co-host Poland embarrassingly lost a 1:0 lead to the Greeks at Warsaw and settled for a 1:1 draw.  Each side had a man sent off.

Russia thrashed Czech Republic by a score of 4:1

The Dutch did everything right except score goals and the vikings of Denmark plundered a 1:0 win.

Germany played true to its old school style and ground out a 1:0 win over the crafty Portuguese.

Spain and Italy played to a lackluster 1:1 draw in which Spain didn’t start any strikers (4-6-0), and Italy had few answers for Spain’s skill.

Ireland were outclassed by Croatia 1:3, but it was classless of Croatia manager Bilic to mention they outclassed Ireland in the media.  The chances were there for the Irish, but Andrews was lacking in the finishing department.

France ground out a 1:1 draw with England.  England is hurting from injury woes, and the fact that Rooney is on suspension because he couldn’t hold his temper in a qualifier.

Sweden took the lead over co-host Ukraine in Kyiv today 1:0 through Ibrahimovic.  But Shevchenko found 2 goals left in his aging frame to spur Ukraine to a nationalist comeback winning 2:1.



Tomorrow’s Matches:

Greece v. Czech Republic

and

Poland v. Russia


Look for co-hosts Poland to pull out all the stops to defeat their political nemesis Russia.  Czech Republic, humbled by Russia, will be looking to re-establish their legitimacy against Greece.

New York Rangers: Should I Stay or Should I Go? 2012

This series discusses New York Rangers' players who are currently unrestricted or restricted free agents, examining their unique situations from the player’s point of view.  Today examine the situations of restricted free agents Francois Bouchard, and Andreas Thuresson.
 

Francois Bouchard, Forward

Reasons to Stay:
Thinks he has a shot to hunt Stanley Cups with the Rangers.

Reasons to Leave:
Makes $70K/year in the AHL with not a sniff of NHL ice-time.

Analysis:
Bouchard comes out of the successful AHL club of Washington Capitals, the Hershey Bears.  Although he didn’t play in the Calder Cup for the Whale this spring, Bouchard was good enough for 10 points and held his own defensively (-1 +/- rating).  Does a decent job of staying out of the box.  Scored a high of 21 goals at Hershey, and 45 for his junior team of
Baie-Comeau.

Speculation:
The talent level is there but does Bouchard want to enlist in John Tortorella’s army?  I predict that Rangers offer a one year extension of Bouchard’s current deal.


Andreas Thuresson, Forward

Reasons to Stay:
Thinks he can make the Rangers out of training camp this fall.

Reasons to Leave:
Thinks he can’t make the Rangers out of training camp this fall, and doesn’t want to stay at the Connecticut Whale.

Analysis:
Played 73 games for the Whale with decent numbers last season (13-8, 21).  Scored a goal and two assists in the Calder Cup.  Is big enough to rumble with the NHL’s cadre of agitators, but with hands that score lovely goals.

Speculation:
Rangers should offer a one year two-way contract.  Thuresson is developing, and maybe has a place in Manhattan.

 

Tomorrow’s segment will feature New York Rangers’ restricted free agents Michael Del Zotto, and Anton Stralman.

Friday, June 8, 2012

EURO 2012 POLAND/UKRAINE

predictions made at 06.03 PDT

GROUP A

1    Czech Republic
2    Poland
-----------------------------
3    Russia
4    Greece

Buoyed by a wave of nationalistic pride, Poland will qualify along with the Czechs, over a faltering Russia and a Greek side distracted over political and economic woes.

GROUP B

1    Netherlands
2    Germany
-----------------------------
3    Portugal
4    Denmark

The Oranje will dominate follwed by Germany, with Portugal and Denmark just missing out.  Expect this group to be extremely close.  Easily the most competitive group in the tournament.

GROUP C

1    Spain
2    Ireland
-----------------------------
3    Croatia
4    Italy

La Furia Roja to dominate, and Ireland (hopefully not a sentimental pick) to surprise under par Croatian and Italian sides.

GROUP D

1    France
2    England
-----------------------------
3    Ukraine
4    Sweden

France continue their impressive string of international results and top the group.  England qualify by the skin of the three lion’s teeth.  Nationalism can’t make up for an average Ukrainian side, and the Swedes will find themselves wanting for points.

Tuesday, June 5, 2012

New York Rangers: Should I Stay or Should I Go? 2012

This series discusses New York Rangers' players who are currently unrestricted or restricted free agents, examining their unique situations from the player’s point of view.  Today we examine the situations of restricted free agents Brandon Prust and Casey Wellman.

Brandon Prust, Forward

Reasons to Stay:
A vital part of the Rangers’ first team.

Reasons to Leave:
None that I can think of.

Analysis:
Brandon Prust has the heart of a lion.  He works tirelessly, and takes on anyone who threatens his teammates.  In addition to this he skates hard, hits, goes to the net, scores and sets up goals (5 goals, 17 points, and 1 goal, 2 points in the Stanley Cup).  He is worth every penny the club pays him.

Speculation:
The Rangers will tender a qualifying offer to Prust.  He would be foolish not to accept.  It would be silly to drag out negotiations as restricted free agents have limited bargaining power, with their only leverage being to hold out.  This would be disruptive, and accomplish nothing.  Prust’s worth is clear.  The Rangers will eventually reward him.

Casey Wellman, Forward

Reasons to Stay:
At 24 years old, the Rangers’ organization is a good place to land for Wellman.

Reasons to Leave:
It is unlikely Wellman will move to another club, or that he should want to.

Analysis:   Successful season with the Connecticut Whale (Rangers’ AHL affiliate), scoring 9 goals, 22 points in 31 games, and starring in the Calder Cup scoring 4 goals, 9 points in 9 games.  Has some size, skates well.

Speculation:
Wellman had a good year for the Whale.  Rangers will tender a qualifying offer for a forward that scores and stays out of the penalty box.



Tomorrow’s segment will feature New York Rangers’ restricted free agents Francois Bouchard and Andreas Thuresson.

Announcement - Rangers’ restricted free agent Mats Zuccarello-Aasen has signed with Metalurg Magnitogorsk of the KHL  on a 1 year contract.  I am annoyed that he did so before I could predict his departure.  I felt that he had been given limited chances with the Rangers this season (10 matches), after having played 42 matches with the big club the year before.  The arrival of Kreider and Hagelin has made Zuccarello expendable.

Monday, June 4, 2012

New York Rangers: Should I Stay or Should I Go? 2012

This series discusses New York Rangers' players who are currently unrestricted or restricted free agents, examining their unique situations from the player’s point of view.  Today we examine the situation of unrestricted free agent Chad Johnson.

Chad Johnson, Goaltender

Reasons to Stay:
Wants to earn himself a shot at backing up Henrik Lundqvist, and maybe get his name on the Stanley Cup.

Reasons to Leave:
Is tired of spending most of his time earning $62,500 playing for the Connecticut Whale in the AHL.  At 25, there is still the chance to start for another NHL team.  Was benched in the Whale’s Calder Cup run, in favor of Cameron Talbot who played all 9 matches in the cup.

Analysis:
For three years, Chad Johnson has toiled for the Rangers’ AHL affiliate.  He has posted good if not overwhelming numbers (62 victories, 55 losses, 11 drawn, 6 shutouts, 2.57 goals against average, and a .911 save percentage).  In that time he has made 6 appearances for the New York Rangers, earning a win, 2 losses, and a draw.  He posted NHL numbers in goals against average and save percentage nearly identical to his AHL stats, 2.59 and .911.

Speculation:
The closest thing Chad Johson has had to a real audition for the New York Rangers was his run of 5 games in 2009-10, backing up Henrik Lundqvist after regular backup Steve Valiquette had been waived.  In the next off-season, Martin Biron was signed by the Rangers as a free agent for the purposes of backing up Lundqvist.  In last season’s Calder Cup run, Johnson was shown the bench in favor of Cameron Talbot, despite Johnson playing 49 matches in the regular season for the Whale to Talbot’s 33.  All indicators point to the fact that the club has lost faith in their ability to develop Johnson into an NHL goaltender.  With young goaltending prospect Scott Stajcer waiting in the wings, it is likely that Johnson will be thanked for his service to the club, and wished the best of luck in his future endeavors.  The Rangers won’t offer a contract to Johnson, allowing him to pursue free agency.  Should current NHL backup Martin Biron not re-sign, the situation changes greatly.  The Rangers would then have to decide to go with Johnson as the NHL backup, sign a free agent to back up Lundqvist, or come up with a third alternative (Talbot? Stajcer?).



Tomorrow’s segment begins our look at the New York Rangers’ restricted free agents.  Featured: Brandon Prust and Casey Wellman.

Sunday, June 3, 2012

New York Rangers: Should I Stay or Should I Go? 2012

This series discusses New York Rangers' players who are currently unrestricted or restricted free agents, examining their unique situations from the player’s point of view.  Today we examine the situations of unrestricted free agents Brendan Bell and Martin Biron.

Brendan Bell, Defense

Reasons to Stay:
Likes playing with the Connecticut Whale in the AHL, and wants to help them win a Calder Cup.

Reasons to Leave:
Bell only played one game for the Rangers last season.  This is not likely to inspire confidence that the Rangers are serious about getting him major NHL ice time.  At the age of 29, Bell doesn’t have a lot of career left to waste with teams that aren’t serious about playing him at the NHL level.

Analysis:
Performed admirably at the AHL level with the Connecticut Whale.  Bell played 65 matches scoring 7 goals and 33 points.  Bell averages slightly over a penalty minute a game, thus demonstrating his ability to avoid the penalty box.  Has 102 matches of NHL experience, scoring 7 goals and 28 points in his career.

Speculation:
Rangers will offer a contract to Bell, but only with the understanding that he is unlikely to play in the NHL.  I doubt this will suit Bell, and he and his agent may reject the Rangers’ offer.  I predict that Bell will leave the organization if an NHL club needing experience and depth offers him a one-way contract.  If there are no free agent nibbles, there are worse things than to play AHL hockey for $200,000/year.  Bell has played in Europe for two different teams.  I doubt he and his agent would decline a reasonable offer from a european club.


Martin Biron, Goaltender

Reasons to Stay:
Made $800,000 dollars last season backing up one of the best goaltenders in professional hockey, on a club that nearly won the league, and made the semi-finals of the Stanley Cup.

Reasons to Leave:
Wants to play more than 20 or so games a season.  Has developed an ego.  May be looking for a different challenge at this stage in his career.

Analysis:  Biron has done an excellent job of playing well, when first choice goaltender Henrik Lundqvist needs a rest.  Over the last two seasons, Biron has posted 20 victories and 12 losses in 38 starts, maintaining a save percentage of over 90%.  Biron has more than proved that he can stop the puck well, and would be a good first choice for most NHL teams.  There is not so much depth at goaltender behind Biron in the Rangers organization.  Neither Chad Johnson, nor Cameron Talbot have been given an extended NHL audition with the Rangers. Biron has 500 matches of NHL experience in goal.

Speculation:
The lack of an extended audition in goal for Johnson and Talbot, is a pretty clear indicator that the Rangers don’t think either goaltending prospect is ready to take on the role of Lundqvist’s backup.  The Rangers need Biron, or someone of comparable skill and experience.  Rangers will offer Biron another 2 year one-way deal.  12-6 record and 2.46 goals against average, could see Biron earn a small pay bump, as he was exceptional as a backup last season.



Tomorrow’s segment will feature New York Rangers’ unrestricted free agent Chad Johnson.

New York Rangers: Should I Stay or Should I Go? 2012

This series discusses New York Rangers' players who are currently unrestricted or restricted free agents, examining their unique situations from the player’s point of view.  Today we examine the situations of unrestricted free agents Jeff Woywitka and John Scott.

Jeff Woywitka, Defense

Reasons to Stay:
Woywitka really, really likes New York and Connecticut.

Reasons to Leave: 
Not likely to get much playing time at NHL level.  Not likely to get much AHL playing time, as ice time on the farm is divided amongst the Rangers’ future stars.  Was on a one year two-way contract as he was needed while Marc Staal recovered from his concussion.

Analysis:
Woywitka played 27 games for the Rangers last season as an injury replacement for the recovering Marc Staal.  Woywitka is a steady blueliner who can occasionally score a goal, but has never scored more than three in an NHL season.  He is big (6’3”, 227) and skates well.  A consistent if unremarkable defender.  Is consistently a plus player.  Stays out of the penalty box.

Speculation:
With Staal healthy, Michael Sauer hopefully on the mend, and several young defense prospects hammering at the door to Manhattan, Woywitka faces the possibility of being cover at the NHL level, or more likely - demoted to Connecticut.  Rangers aren’t likely to offer Woywitka a contract renewal.


John Scott, Defense

Reasons to Stay:
The Rangers offer him a contract.

Reasons to Leave:
He only played 6 games for the Rangers all season.

Analysis:
John Scott’s skill set is that he is immense (6’ 8”, 270 pounds), and is positively inclined to beat the pulp out of anyone that takes liberties with his teammates (1 goal, 5 points, and 236 minutes in penalties in 146 NHL matches).  Played no matches in the Rangers’ Stanley Cup run.  Ultimately:  Brawn plus, skill minus.

Speculation:
The Rangers’ are unlikely to pay Scott $500,000 on a one-way contract to simply intimidate the crap out of everyone - provided that he can catch up to them to do so.  Therefore, the Rangers are unlikely to offer him a contract.



The next segment will feature New York Rangers’ unrestricted free agents Brendan Bell, and Martin Biron.

Friday, June 1, 2012

New York Rangers: Should I Stay or Should I Go? 2012

This series discusses New York Rangers' players who are currently unrestricted or restricted free agents, examining their unique situations from the player’s point of view.  Today we examine the situations of Andre Deveaux and Steve Eminger

Andre Deveaux, Forward

Reasons to Stay:
The Rangers may be on the verge of winning silverware.  Played a big role in Connecticut Whale’s season and Calder Cup run.  Played 9 games with the Rangers.  His last contract with the organization was a pretty sweet deal.

Reasons to Leave:
Thinks he can get more NHL ice time with another club.

Analysis:
Not only does Deveaux have a hard edge to his game (29 minutes in penalities for Rangers, 157 PIM for Connecticut Whale), but he can also score goals (20 goals and 40 points in 59 games for the Whale, also scored 2 goals in Calder Cup).  There was an incident, while playing for the Rangers, where Deveaux served a 3 match ban for an illegal check to the head.  He was sent to the Whale after this infraction and did not return to the big club.  He skates, scores, hits, creates goals for his teammates, and when provoked can handle himself with the gloves off.

Speculation:
Deveaux’ scoring rate and toughness in the AHL merits a second look and the Rangers offer him a 2-3 year deal.  This deal may include a slightly higher AHL salary as Deveaux hit 20 goals for the Whale last season.  It’s sensible for the Rangers to sign him as he would be an insurance policy should Mike Rupp become injured.


Steve Eminger, Defense

Reasons to Stay:
Likes to play for Rangers’ coach John Tortorella.  Rangers on the verge of silverware.

Reasons to Leave:
Another club offers him a wheelbarrow full of money to play NHL hockey.  The Rangers have a group of young defensemen that could displace him if they demonstrate anything close to consistency in training camp this fall.

Analysis: Eminger, 28, is steady if not extraordinary.  His defensive game has improved from his work two seasons ago and played 42 games for the Rangers last season.  He doesn’t score much, but plays with the gift of controlled aggression while avoiding the penalty box (less than a penalty minute a game last season) that coach Tortorella seems to value so greatly.  Doesn’t play much on power play/shorthanded situations.  A decent 3rd pair defenseman.

Speculation:
The Rangers offer a 1-2 year renewal of his last contract.  If the kids on the farm displace him in training camp, there are a number of NHL teams that might be interested in acquiring him for a draft pick or prospect.  Should Mike Sauer return from injury, Erixon or McIlrath impress in training camp, there won’t be much space for Eminger in Manhattan.


 
Tomorrow’s segment will feature New York Rangers’ unrestricted free agents Jeff Woywitka and John Scott.

Thursday, May 31, 2012

New York Rangers: Should I Stay or Should I Go? 2012

This series discusses New York Rangers' players who are currently unrestricted or restricted free agents, examining their unique situations from the player’s point of view.  Today we examine the situations of unrestricted free agents John Mitchell and Kris Newbury.

John Mitchell, Center

Reasons to Stay:
Played 63 games with the Rangers this year and was solid, if unspectacular.  Rangers are truly competing for the Stanley Cup now.  The club seems to need him to win face-offs.

Reasons to Leave:
Plays only 10 minutes a game.  At 27 years-old, Mitchell is unlikely to be pleased with a two-way contract offer.  The Rangers currently have a dozen players under contract that play his position.

Analysis:
John Mitchell is a checking center, that can win face-offs.  He plays about 10 minutes a game.  He is a plus player.  He is good for around 15 points a season.  He hits, and can go to the net.  Outside of these things, John Mitchell’s game is ordinary.  His future with the Rangers depends on how quickly the Rangers’ young prospects develop that play his position.

Speculation:
The Rangers as a team, aren’t that great at winning face-offs.  As long as none of the Rangers’ youthful prospects can better Mitchell’s skill set, his job is probably safe.  The Rangers offer Mitchell roughly the same money as before on a 1 or 2-year deal.  If the club’s young centers aren’t ready, he’ll continue to play with the Rangers.  If Mitchell falters, or begins to get outplayed by younger players, he will see time on the farm at Hartford, and perhaps find himself on the trading block.


Kris Newbury, Center

Reasons to Stay:
If he is offered a renewal of his current contract, things aren’t likely to get much better at age 30.

Reasons to Leave:
Change of venue.  May feel he is toiling in the vacuum of the AHL with no reward in sight.

Analysis:
Newbury is a point-a-game player in the AHL.  The Connecticut Whale need him.  He is experienced, and physical (averages about 3 minutes a game in penalties).  Having said this, Newbury has only scored 1 assist in 18 matches for the Rangers over the last two seasons, and has trouble staying out of the penalty box.  Although the Whale can’t spare him, the Rangers can.  He has never scored more than 2 goals in an NHL season.  The Rangers need Newbury as an injury fill-in, and to continue lighting the lamp in the AHL.

Speculation:
Rangers will offer Newbury a deal.  Probably a 1-year renewal of his current contract.  At this point in his career it may be the best offer he will get.  Should Newbury begin to get consistently outplayed by one of the young prospects,  he may become expendable.


Tomorrow’s segment will feature New York Rangers’ unrestricted free agents Andre Deveaux and Steve Eminger.

New York Rangers: Should I Stay or Should I Go? 2012

This series discusses New York Rangers' players who are currently unrestricted or restricted free agents, examining their unique situations from the player’s point of view.  Today we begin with unrestricted free agent Left Wings Ruslan Fedotenko and Sean Avery.

Ruslan Fedotenko, Forward

Reasons to Stay:
Rangers are strong enough to compete for a Stanley Cup.  It’s pretty cool when you win one of those.  His previous contract with the club paid him $1.4 Million, a yearly salary that most of us would cut off a finger for.  He is comfortable playing for Rangers’ Head Coach John Tortorella, who is known to be a demanding taskmaster.

Reasons to Leave:
You would be hard pressed to come up with any, unless he is considering retirement.

Analysis:
In his two seasons in Manhattan, the 33 year-old Fedotenko has been a fine servant of the club.  Over the course of his professional career, Fedotenko can be counted upon to play 65 to 75 games.  This establishes his durability and also his quality (regular selection in the first team). He can be expected to score somewhere in the neighborhood of 10-15 goals and 15-30 points based on recent form.  Resistance to injury, experience, and scoring make him an asset to any team intelligent enough to sign or re-sign him.  In addition to his skillful hands, Fedotenko plays the game with a bit of an edge.  More importantly, He manages to play this moderately rugged style while steering clear of the penalty box.  Fedotenko is a proven pro, and has been an important component in galvanizing the Rangers’ current mix of youthful and experienced personnel.  The Rangers would be foolish to not offer him at least a one-year contract.  Counting against Fedetenko are his age, and the fact that the Rangers organization currently has 9 left wings under contract, many of whom are young and hungry to prove themselves.

Speculation:
Rangers offer Fedotenko a contract for one year in the range of $1.5-1.7 million.  This contract offer will likely contain incentive bonuses.  Fedotenko will intelligently sign and bolster his bank account accordingly.

Sean Avery, Forward

Reasons to Stay:
I can’t think of any, unless he can somehow regain respect and trust from Rangers’ management.

Reasons to Leave:
Tortorella has washed him out of the Rangers’ lineup.  At one point, it was essentially stated that Avery’s services were no longer needed, and that he needn’t attend training any longer.  What makes the last sentence interesting is that it was decided during the AHL season.  Clearly all bridges have been burned in the New York Rangers organization, and Avery has been blackballed as a toxic liability.

Analysis:
When you look at the numbers, Avery, 32, is a player that has produced rather consistent results on the ice.  In fact Avery scored 3 goals for the Rangers in the 2011-12 season.  This is a statistic made more remarkable that he did so in only ten minutes of ice time.  Off the ice, it’s been a completely different matter, and the notorious incidents he has generated are too many to list.  Avery, when focused and controlling his aggression, is a very good hockey player that can score, pass, check, agitate, and skate with pace.  His actions and statements on and off the ice, however, have irreparably damaged his relationships with Rangers’ management.  Avery publicly stated that he had retired from hockey, but apparently his agent said he was joking.

Speculation:
The Avery scenario suggests that there are two likely resolutions.  The more plausible one is that Avery retires from hockey and pursues his interests, which include fashion writing, and collecting wines.  The other possibility is the revenge game, less plausible as revenge requires focus, commitment, and motivation.  Avery, aided by his agent, signs with one of the Rangers’ major rivals (New Jersey, NY Islanders, or Philadelphia) for the sole purpose of making it his mission in life to generate a never ending source of misery for Tortorella and the NY Rangers organization.  Tortorella’s low opinion of Avery is a matter of public record.  The Rangers will not tender a contract offer to Avery, for the purpose of releasing him from the organization.  Having said this, professional ice hockey is a game of heroes and villains, and just as in comic books, villains never quite disappear…



Tomorrow’s segment will feature New York Rangers’ Unrestricted Free Agents John Mitchell, and Kris Newbury.

Monday, June 13, 2011

New York Rangers: Should I Stay or Should I Go?

The final segment features restricted free agents Matt McCue & Pavel Valentenko.


Matt McCue, Defense/Left Wing

Reasons to stay – A contract offer of any kind from the Rangers means they’re still interested in McCue.

Reasons to leave – None.

Analysis – Played in 43 games for the Dayton Gems of the CHL. Did not get any matches at the ECHL or AHL level.

Speculation – McCue seems to have fallen off of the club’s radar. With so many young forwards heading up to Connecticut for this fall, you have to wonder where a player like McCue will fit in. I anticipate that no contract will be offered to McCue for the purpose of releasing him from the club.


Pavel Valentenko, Defense

Reasons to stay – Is getting close, so close, to breaking into the Rangers’ 7 defense spots.

Reasons to leave – Maybe doesn’t want to sign a two-way NHL contract at 27 years old. Absence of a substantial AHL raise on a two-way contract offer. Probably has a place to go play in the KHL for a better wage than the $62.5K U.S. he was making at Connecticut.

Analysis – After two seasons of part time duty at Dynamo Moscow, Valentenko put together a very sharp year at the Wolf Pack/Whale. Played 79 matches scoring 17 points and was +21. Played all 6 Calder Cup matches for the Whale. Valentenko can expect to press for a place amongst the current log jam of qualified defensemen this fall at the Rangers’ training camp. Valentenko has not once played for the New York Rangers.

Speculation – The Rangers would be foolish to not retain the services of Valentenko, 23, who is putting in the yeoman’s work to earn a place with the New York Rangers. Rangers offer Valentenko a two-way deal with significant AHL pay bump. If Valentenko and his agent balk at the Rangers’ offer, Sather might try to deal the rights to Valentenko at the draft in an attempt to gain an early round pick.


This ends this summer's edition of Should I Stay or Should I Go? Stay tuned, watch this space.

Sunday, June 12, 2011

New York Rangers: Should I Stay or Should I Go?

This feature examines the free agent scenario of New Y0rk Rangers players that are currently out of contract. Today's segment examines the situations of John Mitchell & Tysen Dowzak.


John Mitchell, Center/Wing

Reasons to stay – Thinks the Rangers are on their way to a brighter future and wants to be a part of it.

Reasons to leave – Mitchell, 26, probably doesn’t want to sign a two-way contract at this stage in his career.

Analysis – Although Mitchell has 159 NHL matches under his belt, he finished the year with the Connecticut Whale in the AHL where he scored 12 points in 14 games. He did not once play for the Rangers last season. Mitchell is a lower line forward. The Rangers have a ton of depth with this type of player, but not so many with the amount of NHL match experience that Mitchell has. The Rangers picked up Mitchell from Toronto late in February for a 7th round 2012 draft pick. Mitchell was a playoff ace for the Whale playing all 6 Calder Cup games scoring 6 points along the way. His NHL point production curve has plummeted over his three NHL seasons.

Speculation – All depends on whether the Rangers believe that Mitchell is in their future plans and/or which other free agent forwards leave the club. He will likely have to sign a two-way contract to stay in New York if all the other forwards stay. At the age of 26 I doubt Mitchell has any intention of signing a two-way deal. Club and player may choose to part ways.



Tysen Dowzak, Defense

Reasons to stay – If the Rangers offer Dowzak any sort of deal at all, he should sign quickly before the club changes its mind.

Reasons to leave – None. The Rangers are nurturing a long-term project with Dowzak. He needs the Rangers more than the Rangers need him.

Analysis – Dowzak, 23, played the entire 2010-11 season with the Dayton Gems of the CHL. He is a prospect that is falling off of the Rangers’ radar quickly. The Rangers have a ton of depth at defense.

Speculation – Rangers allow Dowzak to remain a restricted free agent as a means of releasing him from the organization.


Tomorrow's final segment of "Should I Stay or Should I Go?" features RFAs Matt McCue & Pavel Valentenko.

Saturday, June 11, 2011

New York Rangers: Should I Stay or Should I Go?

This series examines the free agent scenarios of New York Rangers players who are currently out of contract. Today we examine restricted free agents Justin Soryal & Brodie Dupont.


Justin Soryal, Left Wing

Reasons to stay – If offered a contract, it would be sensible to re-sign, as Soryal’s numbers might not float him to a new pro hockey destination. As a restricted free agent, has very little bargaining power.

Reasons to leave – Considering retirement from hockey. Thinks he can get a better deal from another team.

Analysis – Soryal, 23, is currently a fringe player in the Rangers’ organization. He is a very hard character and handles part of the policing duties on the Wolf Pack/Whale. In his 3 AHL pro seasons, Soryal has been unable to match his best scoring numbers from his junior days at Peterboro. It seems the hope here, as it is with DiDomete, was that Soryal would not only bring his toughness from junior but also some of his offensive ability. In 3 seasons with the Wolf Pack/Whale (189 games) Soryal has managed a total of 11 goals, 14 assists for 25 points and 493 minutes in penalties. Soryal was a scratch in 5 of his club’s 6 Calder Cup Finals matches this year.

Speculation – If the Rangers believe that Soryal can develop enough to contribute more offensively and/or that he is a must have as an enforcer Soryal will be offered a contract. If the Rangers feel they have many redundancies in the enforcer department, Soryal may be allowed to remain a free agent as a means of releasing him from the club. Soryal gets offered either a one year contract, or isn’t offered a contract at all.



Brodie Dupont, Center/Left Wing

Reasons to stay – At 24, Dupont is a mainstay player for the Rangers’ AHL affiliate. His AHL salary at the end of his contract was $75K/year, this is a good real-world salary. Got his first game with the parent club during the Rangers’ winter injury difficulties. As restricted free agent he has little bargaining power.

Reasons to leave – Has toiled on the farm for 4 seasons and only has one NHL game to show for it. Thinks he can get a better deal from another club.

Analysis – Has played 297 games for the Wolf Pack/Whale posting numbers of 58 goals, 90 assists for 148 points with 389 minutes in penalties. With AHL goal totals in the range of 9-18 and points in the range of 22-45, Dupont has established himself as a gritty and consistent player who can make decent offensive contributions. Played in all 6 of the Whale's Calder Cup Finals matches. Seems to have the confidence of management going forward as he got his first NHL game this last season. Essentially the club likes Dupont’s work rate, scoring, and consistency.

Speculation – Dupont will likely be offered the same contract or one with a slight AHL raise. The deal must be two-way and will likely have no increase for the NHL salary level. I expect Dupont will be offered a deal for 2-3 years duration.


Tomorrow's segment will have a look at the free agent scenarios of RFAs John Mitchell & Tyson Dowzak.

Friday, June 10, 2011

New York Rangers: Should I Stay or Should I Go?

This is a segment in a series examining the New York Rangers free agent scenarios. Today we examine the restricted free agents Dale Weise & Devin DiDiomete.


Dale Weise, Right Wing

Reasons to stay – At 22 years-old he still has time to hone his skills in the AHL and think things through. The Rangers seem to be keen on Weise, so it would benefit him to flow with the program.

Reasons to leave – Weise is a player who has scored a bunch at the AHL level, and has a fair amount of grit to his game. His AHL salary is $65K, and there might be other teams willing to offer more and nurture Weise’s development to his target role as NHL checking line player.

Analysis – Weise has played well in his three seasons for the Wolf Pack/Whale and earned enough confidence from management to be an injury replacement for 10 games with the parent club this season. Made no offensive contribution at pro level, with a penchant for taking knucklehead penalties, and needs more seasoning in the nutmeg state. An intimidating and uncompromising player, Weise will have a blue sweater waiting when his offensive numbers and discipline in the AHL translate to his game in the NHL.

Speculation – Weise signs a deal for what he currently makes or a bit more for a duration of probably 2 years.


Devin DiDiomete, Left Wing

Reasons to stay – Perhaps there is not so much league interest for this player. A second chance to work on the offensive part of his game.

Reasons to leave – Considering retirement from pro hockey. Thinks he can do better than the Rangers’ offer in free agency. I heard that DiDiomete got to help call some games with the Wolf Pack’s/Whale’s broadcasters and acquitted himself very well, perhaps Devin’s destiny lies in broacasting.

Analysis – The Rangers saw a rugged player with a two-way game when they drafted him out of the OHL’s Sarnia Sting where DiDiomete posted personal a personal best season in goals, assists, & points with 23-33 56 and 216 minutes in penalties. In his 3 year AHL career DiDiomete has only managed a total of 10 goals, 11 assists, and 661 penalty minutes in 170 matches with the Hartford Wolf Pack/Connecticut Whale. Both the Rangers and the Whale have players that can not only handle the policing duties, but can also score and set up goals.

Speculation – The Whale are about to get reinforced with some pretty good talent. I don’t foresee that there will be enough ice time to go around. Although DiDiomete has unquestionable prominence in the heart department, it probably won’t be enough this time around to earn a contract. The Rangers organization will likely let the young left wing explore restricted free agency as a way of releasing him from the club.


Tomorrow's segment will discuss the restricted free agents Justin Soryal & Brodie Dupont.

Thursday, June 9, 2011

New York Rangers: Should I Stay or Should I Go?

Today's segment explores the predicaments of Ranger's restricted free agents Stu Bickel & Chad Johnson.

Stu Bickel, Defense

Reasons to stay – For now, has a regular place in the team with the Connecticut Whale in the AHL.

Reasons to leave – At 24 years of age, Bickel may be looking to take his rugged style of play to a club that needs a first team player. Would probably like an AHL salary better than $62,500. The Rangers have a several defensemen in the system and promotion to New York from the farm seems currently out of reach.

Analysis – This season was the first where Bickel played close to a full AHL season(60 games between Syracuse and Hartford/Connecticut). Performed reasonably well, but nothing outstanding. Bickel is super rugged - a very hard player.

Speculation – The Rangers would be smart to retain Bickel, but he’s going to want an AHL raise. The contract will have to be two-way, but the AHL salary is going to have to go up if the club is serious about him. Bickel will probably sign a 1-2 year deal for in the range of NHL $875K/AHL $70-85K. The leverage is in the hands of the club, so probably not a big raise. Redden, Parlett, Niemi, Valentenko, Nightingale, Kundratek, maybe Del Zotto, and McIlrath will all be needing minutes, who will have a chair to sit down in when the music stops?


Chad Johnson, Goaltender

Reasons to stay – Johnson carries the bulk of the load in minutes played for the Connecticut Whale. Johnson may be able to position himself as the Rangers’ new backup. As restricted free agent, he may not have a lot of options to move.

Reasons to leave – At 24 years old, he has to be wondering if he’s going to become an NHL player or a career AHL player.

Analysis – Though he has 87 games and 40 wins under his belt for the Wolf Pack/Whale, he has only appeared 6 times for the parent club – acquitting himself quite well when called upon with 1 win, 2 losses, with an overtime result, a .911 save percentage and a 2.59 goals against average. Was at entry level AHL salary of $62,500 at the end of his contract. Clearly Johnson is good at stopping pucks.

Speculation – Johnson is only behind Rangers’ backup Martin Biron on the organizations depth chart. Although the Rangers’ number one goalie Henrik Lundqvist is on a long term contract, Martin Biron’s expires after the 2010-11 season. If the Rangers are unable to or unwilling to re-sign Biron, Johnson may get his chance to join the Rangers’ squad. Rangers will offer a reasonable if unspectacular two-way deal and in all likelihood Johnson will sign.


In tomorrow's segment we examine Rangers' restricted free agents Dale Weise & Devin DiDiomete.

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UPDATE - The New York Daily News has reported that the New York Rangers intend to buy out the contract of center and captain Chris Drury.

Tuesday, June 7, 2011

New York Rangers: Should I Stay or Should I Go?

Today we look at restricted free agents Artem Anisimov & Brian Boyle.


Artem Anisimov, Center

Reasons to stay – Has the confidence of both coach and GM illustrated by his regular place in the team. He is enjoying his best season yet in a blue sweater with season-highs in goals, assists, and points. He seems to be marked as a key part of the club’s revival.

Reasons to leave – The free agent market will not let the Rangers keep Anisimov’s salary point at $822K.

Analysis – Has played all 82 games in his first two full NHL seasons. Steadily improving in both scoring and defending. A good solid player. Decent on face-offs.

Speculation – How much of a raise is Glen Sather prepared to offer Anisimov? A competing club may be willing to offer
Anisimov more free agent money than the Rangers care to or can afford to match. Anisimov will be re-signed unless another club overpays for him. A likely contract scenario sees Anisimov signing a one-way deal for 2-3 years somewhere around the $1.2M-2M mark.


Brian Boyle, Center/Wing

Reasons to stay – Boyle is enjoying the best professional season of his NHL career with highs in goals, assists, and points. He has finally earned the confidence of management with a regular place in the team. Of all the forward lines for the Rangers this year, Boyle’s has seen the least tinkering from Torts the tinkerer. Is a restricted free agent which narrows his options.

Reasons to leave – His season numbers indicate that a raise is in order. The Rangers may not be able to retain him for the $525K that he currently earns.

Analysis – A 500% improvement on his production stats from last season tells me Boyle is playing for a bit of job security and a raise. Played all 82 games. Worked hard previous summer on improving his skating. Scored NHL highs of 21 goals, 14 assists, and 35 points.

Speculation – Has worked hard enough on his game to earn a raise, but a raise of how much? The Rangers will probably re-sign Boyle to a one-way contract in the range of somewhere between $800K-1M. The contract length will likely be a 1-2 years, as the Rangers will want to wait and see if Boyle’s dramatic improvement becomes consistency before attempting to retain him for bigger money and longer term.


Tomorrow's segment will feature restricted free agents Stu Bickel & Chad Johnson.

Monday, June 6, 2011

New York Rangers: Should I Stay or Should I Go?

A continuing series examining the situations of New York Rangers free agents. Today we continue looking at the Rangers' restricted free agents Matt Gilroy & Michael Sauer.


Matt Gilroy, Defense

Reasons to stay – Finally seems to have earned Torts’ confidence and the 26 year-old seems to have a regular place in the team.

Reasons to leave – Rangers offer a salary cut that is too steep. Rangers demand he sign a two-way deal.

Analysis – Gilroy got 58 games (more than McDonagh and Del Zotto) with the big club this last season and this shows some confidence in his abilities. Brian McCabe was traded for and this shows that the club isn’t sure about Gilroy’s viability over the long term. Gilroy is a plus-player, very coachable, skates like the wind, and has a good shot. Two solid years with the big club stand him in good stead in his contract negotiations.

Speculation – The Rangers like Gilroy, but do they like him over the long term at $2.1M/year? Rangers re-sign Gilroy in the range of $2.1-2.5M/year. If Gilroy lacks confidence in the club it will be a one or two years deal. If Gilroy is confident of his place in the “young core” perhaps he will sign a 4-5 year deal. The organization does not truly have a prospect in waiting (or a line on a free agent defenseman in waiting) that can replace his experience and this will be an advantage in Gilroy’s contract talks.



Michael Sauer, Defense

Reasons to stay – Has finally earned a regular place in the team after years of toiling on the farm. The Rangers need his grit and willingness to stand up for teammates.

Reasons to leave – It took the Rangers a combination of a long time, and a fair amount of desperation to give Sauer a proper chance at the NHL level. Lowball contract offer. Rangers demand Sauer sign a two-way deal.

Analysis – This guy just keeps getting better, and his numbers support that. 76 games with the big club with no demotions. Sauer brings his brand of rugged and steady play to the rink each day. Led the Rangers in plus/minus with +20.

Speculation – How much of a raise are the Rangers prepared to award Sauer? I’m going to guess that less than $1.5M isn’t going to cut it (As he was making $62.5K/year for the better part of 3 years), and that suitors will be lining up for his services. If the Rangers are willing to reward Sauer for being a faithful servant of the club Sauer will re-sign. If the contract offer doesn’t reflect the significant impact he has had in the team, Sauer may elect to hold out. Sauer will likely re-sign for 2-3 years on a one-way contract of between $800K-1.2M. If better money is offered, the Rangers may be able to lock up Sauer in a 4-6 year deal. If the Rangers are only offering a two-way deal, the AHL salary had better be more than $75,000/year.


Tomorrow's segment features restricted free agents Artem Anisimov & Brian Boyle.

Friday, June 3, 2011

New York Rangers: Should I Stay or Should I Go?

Today's segment is the first segment in a series examining the New York Rangers' restricted free agents. The first two RFAs we will look at are Brandon Dubinsky & Ryan Callahan.


Ryan Callahan, Right Wing

Reasons to Stay – Attachment to club and city that seem to love his combination of grit, speed, and skill. A chance to be a part of something amazing, if the Ranger management can ever properly fine tune the mix. Fans expect he will be named captain when (current captain) Chris Drury’s contract expires after the 2011-12 season.

Reasons to leave – A lowball contract offer from Sather. Does Callahan feel he is laboring in a vacuum, with not a Stanley Cup sniff in sight? A number of teams would give their eye teeth to sign Callahan to their roster.

Analysis – Callahan is a model of consistency on and off the ice. He seems to have the confidence of Sather, Torts, fans, and supporters. He is currently an alternate captain with the team. Callahan gives everything every shift, he plays in all situations skates, defends, scores, passes, hits early and often, and blocks shots - often to his own physical detriment as both his hand and his ankle were broken this year blocking shots. Callahan has demonstrated again and again that he is a vital part of what the Rangers are trying to build. Sather must re-sign this player at any reasonable cost.

Speculation – Callahan will sign a long term one-way deal of 4 to 6 years at a salary point in excess of $4M a year, a significant raise from his previous salary of $2.3M/year. The Rangers have the cap room to accommodate this, and they would be foolish to alienate him. A holdout situation would be a PR disaster for the club, and for Sather.


Brandon Dubinsky, Wing/Center

Reasons to Stay – Like Callahan, Dubinsky is enjoying robust success with the club and seems to have the confidence of both coach and GM, Seems attached to club, city, fans. He survived a holdout against the club over salary by responding with a good year.

Reasons to leave – A lowball contract offer from the club.

Analysis – The amount the Rangers are willing to spend on Dubinsky will likely determine whether or not he remains in a blue sweater. Dubinsky makes vital contributions to the Rangers by: defending, scoring goals, setting up goals, hitting, the odd scrap with unruly interlopers, power play, penalty killing. The Rangers simply can’t afford to let Dubinsky leave.

Speculation – Dubinsky re-signs with the club on a deal similar to the one that will retain the services of Ryan Callahan. A holdout situation is unthinkable from the standpoint of either club or player…Dubinsky will show his resolve by holding out if the negotiations are not carried out in good faith.

Tomorrow's segment will feature restricted free agents Matt Gilroy & Michael Sauer.

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New York Rangers - Trade Update: The Rangers have acquired defenseman Tim Erixon and a 5th round 2011 draft pick, in return for center Roman Horak and both of the Rangers' 2nd round draft picks in the 2011 draft.

What Calgary Gets: Calgary gets a good prospect in Horak, and adds two high draft picks.

What New York Gets: Although Horak and the 2 second rounders would have been good to keep, Horak and the players that would have been selected in the second round have zero games of pro experience. Erixon has 140 pro matches under his belt with his Swedish club Skelleftea with the 5th round pick added to even things out a little bit.

Analysis: This trade favors New York in the short term, and Calgary in the long term.

Speculation: Adding another defenseman with pro experience means that the battle for the Rangers last starting defense spot has become even more intense. This deal will impact Matt Gilroy, Michael Del Zotto, Steve Eminger, Dylan McIlrath, Blake Parlett, and others throughout the organization's depth chart. This deal also provides cover at defense in the event that Steve Eminger leaves the club.

Thursday, June 2, 2011

New York Rangers: Should I Stay or Should I Go?

Today's segment examines two of the New York Rangers unrestricted free agents. In today's case we will examine Bryan McCabe & Steve Eminger.

Bryan McCabe, Defense

Reasons to stay – I can’t think of any, and McCabe’s forgettable late season addition didn’t exactly impress the Rangers’ fans.

Reasons to leave – Can test the market as an unrestricted free agent, and probably finds a place on someone’s blue line for maybe a bit more than the Rangers are willing to offer.

Analysis – The trade that sent young Tim Kennedy to Florida for McCabe was a rental gamble that McCabe would be a steadying veteran presence on the power play. This gamble failed.

Speculation – The Rangers let the 35 year-old (36 in June) defenseman and his $5.750M contract drop off of the salary cap. McCabe walks in search of greener pastures.



Steve Eminger, Defense

Reasons to stay – Torts likes Eminger’s physicality and has given him preference for ice time – perhaps over players who are more talented and skillful.

Reasons to leave – Eminger has perhaps grown tired of being the pawn in the power struggle between Tortorella and Del Zotto.

Analysis – Athough Eminger is a more consistent player than Del Zotto, it seemed over the course of last season that when one was playing, the other was a healthy scratch. Eminger brings consistency and physical play to the Rangers' blue line. Conversely, Eminger is nearly 30, and is not the passer, shooter, nor skater that Del Zotto is. Should Eminger re-sign with the club, he continue to compete directly with Gilroy and Del Zotto for a place in the starting six defensemen. If it’s Eminger’s goal to sign a one-way contract with the Rangers, he might have to acknowledge that he may be the seventh defenseman and ride the pine pony.

Speculation – The million dollar question, literally, is: Does Eminger love playing for Torts and the Rangers enough to risk riding the pine when his betters figure out how to appease Tortzilla? If the Rangers still feel they need Eminger as cover for Del Zotto, Gilroy, and McDonagh they must re-sign him. Then, it’s a matter of price. For Eminger’s skill level and age, the Rangers won’t be prepared to pay more than the $1.125M he was making on his previous contract. So if he likes playing in New York, he’ll accept a renewal of the previous contract or a slight pay cut. If Eminger is interested in a higher salary, he might be able to find it, but not in New York. This one is too close to call.


In tomorrow's segment I will begin examining the New York Rangers' restricted free agents. The first two RFAs up will be Ryan Callahan & Brandon Dubinsky.