New York Rangers: Should I Stay or Should I Go? 2012

This series discusses New York Rangers' players who are currently unrestricted or restricted free agents, examining their unique situations from the player’s point of view.  Today we examine the situation of unrestricted free agent Chad Johnson.

Chad Johnson, Goaltender

Reasons to Stay:
Wants to earn himself a shot at backing up Henrik Lundqvist, and maybe get his name on the Stanley Cup.

Reasons to Leave:
Is tired of spending most of his time earning $62,500 playing for the Connecticut Whale in the AHL.  At 25, there is still the chance to start for another NHL team.  Was benched in the Whale’s Calder Cup run, in favor of Cameron Talbot who played all 9 matches in the cup.

Analysis:
For three years, Chad Johnson has toiled for the Rangers’ AHL affiliate.  He has posted good if not overwhelming numbers (62 victories, 55 losses, 11 drawn, 6 shutouts, 2.57 goals against average, and a .911 save percentage).  In that time he has made 6 appearances for the New York Rangers, earning a win, 2 losses, and a draw.  He posted NHL numbers in goals against average and save percentage nearly identical to his AHL stats, 2.59 and .911.

Speculation:
The closest thing Chad Johson has had to a real audition for the New York Rangers was his run of 5 games in 2009-10, backing up Henrik Lundqvist after regular backup Steve Valiquette had been waived.  In the next off-season, Martin Biron was signed by the Rangers as a free agent for the purposes of backing up Lundqvist.  In last season’s Calder Cup run, Johnson was shown the bench in favor of Cameron Talbot, despite Johnson playing 49 matches in the regular season for the Whale to Talbot’s 33.  All indicators point to the fact that the club has lost faith in their ability to develop Johnson into an NHL goaltender.  With young goaltending prospect Scott Stajcer waiting in the wings, it is likely that Johnson will be thanked for his service to the club, and wished the best of luck in his future endeavors.  The Rangers won’t offer a contract to Johnson, allowing him to pursue free agency.  Should current NHL backup Martin Biron not re-sign, the situation changes greatly.  The Rangers would then have to decide to go with Johnson as the NHL backup, sign a free agent to back up Lundqvist, or come up with a third alternative (Talbot? Stajcer?).



Tomorrow’s segment begins our look at the New York Rangers’ restricted free agents.  Featured: Brandon Prust and Casey Wellman.

New York Rangers: Should I Stay or Should I Go? 2012

This series discusses New York Rangers' players who are currently unrestricted or restricted free agents, examining their unique situations from the player’s point of view.  Today we examine the situations of unrestricted free agents Brendan Bell and Martin Biron.

Brendan Bell, Defense

Reasons to Stay:
Likes playing with the Connecticut Whale in the AHL, and wants to help them win a Calder Cup.

Reasons to Leave:
Bell only played one game for the Rangers last season.  This is not likely to inspire confidence that the Rangers are serious about getting him major NHL ice time.  At the age of 29, Bell doesn’t have a lot of career left to waste with teams that aren’t serious about playing him at the NHL level.

Analysis:
Performed admirably at the AHL level with the Connecticut Whale.  Bell played 65 matches scoring 7 goals and 33 points.  Bell averages slightly over a penalty minute a game, thus demonstrating his ability to avoid the penalty box.  Has 102 matches of NHL experience, scoring 7 goals and 28 points in his career.

Speculation:
Rangers will offer a contract to Bell, but only with the understanding that he is unlikely to play in the NHL.  I doubt this will suit Bell, and he and his agent may reject the Rangers’ offer.  I predict that Bell will leave the organization if an NHL club needing experience and depth offers him a one-way contract.  If there are no free agent nibbles, there are worse things than to play AHL hockey for $200,000/year.  Bell has played in Europe for two different teams.  I doubt he and his agent would decline a reasonable offer from a european club.


Martin Biron, Goaltender

Reasons to Stay:
Made $800,000 dollars last season backing up one of the best goaltenders in professional hockey, on a club that nearly won the league, and made the semi-finals of the Stanley Cup.

Reasons to Leave:
Wants to play more than 20 or so games a season.  Has developed an ego.  May be looking for a different challenge at this stage in his career.

Analysis:  Biron has done an excellent job of playing well, when first choice goaltender Henrik Lundqvist needs a rest.  Over the last two seasons, Biron has posted 20 victories and 12 losses in 38 starts, maintaining a save percentage of over 90%.  Biron has more than proved that he can stop the puck well, and would be a good first choice for most NHL teams.  There is not so much depth at goaltender behind Biron in the Rangers organization.  Neither Chad Johnson, nor Cameron Talbot have been given an extended NHL audition with the Rangers. Biron has 500 matches of NHL experience in goal.

Speculation:
The lack of an extended audition in goal for Johnson and Talbot, is a pretty clear indicator that the Rangers don’t think either goaltending prospect is ready to take on the role of Lundqvist’s backup.  The Rangers need Biron, or someone of comparable skill and experience.  Rangers will offer Biron another 2 year one-way deal.  12-6 record and 2.46 goals against average, could see Biron earn a small pay bump, as he was exceptional as a backup last season.



Tomorrow’s segment will feature New York Rangers’ unrestricted free agent Chad Johnson.

New York Rangers: Should I Stay or Should I Go? 2012

This series discusses New York Rangers' players who are currently unrestricted or restricted free agents, examining their unique situations from the player’s point of view.  Today we examine the situations of unrestricted free agents Jeff Woywitka and John Scott.

Jeff Woywitka, Defense

Reasons to Stay:
Woywitka really, really likes New York and Connecticut.

Reasons to Leave: 
Not likely to get much playing time at NHL level.  Not likely to get much AHL playing time, as ice time on the farm is divided amongst the Rangers’ future stars.  Was on a one year two-way contract as he was needed while Marc Staal recovered from his concussion.

Analysis:
Woywitka played 27 games for the Rangers last season as an injury replacement for the recovering Marc Staal.  Woywitka is a steady blueliner who can occasionally score a goal, but has never scored more than three in an NHL season.  He is big (6’3”, 227) and skates well.  A consistent if unremarkable defender.  Is consistently a plus player.  Stays out of the penalty box.

Speculation:
With Staal healthy, Michael Sauer hopefully on the mend, and several young defense prospects hammering at the door to Manhattan, Woywitka faces the possibility of being cover at the NHL level, or more likely - demoted to Connecticut.  Rangers aren’t likely to offer Woywitka a contract renewal.


John Scott, Defense

Reasons to Stay:
The Rangers offer him a contract.

Reasons to Leave:
He only played 6 games for the Rangers all season.

Analysis:
John Scott’s skill set is that he is immense (6’ 8”, 270 pounds), and is positively inclined to beat the pulp out of anyone that takes liberties with his teammates (1 goal, 5 points, and 236 minutes in penalties in 146 NHL matches).  Played no matches in the Rangers’ Stanley Cup run.  Ultimately:  Brawn plus, skill minus.

Speculation:
The Rangers’ are unlikely to pay Scott $500,000 on a one-way contract to simply intimidate the crap out of everyone - provided that he can catch up to them to do so.  Therefore, the Rangers are unlikely to offer him a contract.



The next segment will feature New York Rangers’ unrestricted free agents Brendan Bell, and Martin Biron.

New York Rangers: Should I Stay or Should I Go? 2012

This series discusses New York Rangers' players who are currently unrestricted or restricted free agents, examining their unique situations from the player’s point of view.  Today we examine the situations of Andre Deveaux and Steve Eminger

Andre Deveaux, Forward

Reasons to Stay:
The Rangers may be on the verge of winning silverware.  Played a big role in Connecticut Whale’s season and Calder Cup run.  Played 9 games with the Rangers.  His last contract with the organization was a pretty sweet deal.

Reasons to Leave:
Thinks he can get more NHL ice time with another club.

Analysis:
Not only does Deveaux have a hard edge to his game (29 minutes in penalities for Rangers, 157 PIM for Connecticut Whale), but he can also score goals (20 goals and 40 points in 59 games for the Whale, also scored 2 goals in Calder Cup).  There was an incident, while playing for the Rangers, where Deveaux served a 3 match ban for an illegal check to the head.  He was sent to the Whale after this infraction and did not return to the big club.  He skates, scores, hits, creates goals for his teammates, and when provoked can handle himself with the gloves off.

Speculation:
Deveaux’ scoring rate and toughness in the AHL merits a second look and the Rangers offer him a 2-3 year deal.  This deal may include a slightly higher AHL salary as Deveaux hit 20 goals for the Whale last season.  It’s sensible for the Rangers to sign him as he would be an insurance policy should Mike Rupp become injured.


Steve Eminger, Defense

Reasons to Stay:
Likes to play for Rangers’ coach John Tortorella.  Rangers on the verge of silverware.

Reasons to Leave:
Another club offers him a wheelbarrow full of money to play NHL hockey.  The Rangers have a group of young defensemen that could displace him if they demonstrate anything close to consistency in training camp this fall.

Analysis: Eminger, 28, is steady if not extraordinary.  His defensive game has improved from his work two seasons ago and played 42 games for the Rangers last season.  He doesn’t score much, but plays with the gift of controlled aggression while avoiding the penalty box (less than a penalty minute a game last season) that coach Tortorella seems to value so greatly.  Doesn’t play much on power play/shorthanded situations.  A decent 3rd pair defenseman.

Speculation:
The Rangers offer a 1-2 year renewal of his last contract.  If the kids on the farm displace him in training camp, there are a number of NHL teams that might be interested in acquiring him for a draft pick or prospect.  Should Mike Sauer return from injury, Erixon or McIlrath impress in training camp, there won’t be much space for Eminger in Manhattan.


 

Tomorrow’s segment will feature New York Rangers’ unrestricted free agents Jeff Woywitka and John Scott.

New York Rangers: Should I Stay or Should I Go? 2012

This series discusses New York Rangers' players who are currently unrestricted or restricted free agents, examining their unique situations from the player’s point of view.  Today we examine the situations of unrestricted free agents John Mitchell and Kris Newbury.

John Mitchell, Center

Reasons to Stay:
Played 63 games with the Rangers this year and was solid, if unspectacular.  Rangers are truly competing for the Stanley Cup now.  The club seems to need him to win face-offs.

Reasons to Leave:
Plays only 10 minutes a game.  At 27 years-old, Mitchell is unlikely to be pleased with a two-way contract offer.  The Rangers currently have a dozen players under contract that play his position.

Analysis:
John Mitchell is a checking center, that can win face-offs.  He plays about 10 minutes a game.  He is a plus player.  He is good for around 15 points a season.  He hits, and can go to the net.  Outside of these things, John Mitchell’s game is ordinary.  His future with the Rangers depends on how quickly the Rangers’ young prospects develop that play his position.

Speculation:
The Rangers as a team, aren’t that great at winning face-offs.  As long as none of the Rangers’ youthful prospects can better Mitchell’s skill set, his job is probably safe.  The Rangers offer Mitchell roughly the same money as before on a 1 or 2-year deal.  If the club’s young centers aren’t ready, he’ll continue to play with the Rangers.  If Mitchell falters, or begins to get outplayed by younger players, he will see time on the farm at Hartford, and perhaps find himself on the trading block.


Kris Newbury, Center

Reasons to Stay:
If he is offered a renewal of his current contract, things aren’t likely to get much better at age 30.

Reasons to Leave:
Change of venue.  May feel he is toiling in the vacuum of the AHL with no reward in sight.

Analysis:
Newbury is a point-a-game player in the AHL.  The Connecticut Whale need him.  He is experienced, and physical (averages about 3 minutes a game in penalties).  Having said this, Newbury has only scored 1 assist in 18 matches for the Rangers over the last two seasons, and has trouble staying out of the penalty box.  Although the Whale can’t spare him, the Rangers can.  He has never scored more than 2 goals in an NHL season.  The Rangers need Newbury as an injury fill-in, and to continue lighting the lamp in the AHL.

Speculation:
Rangers will offer Newbury a deal.  Probably a 1-year renewal of his current contract.  At this point in his career it may be the best offer he will get.  Should Newbury begin to get consistently outplayed by one of the young prospects,  he may become expendable.


Tomorrow’s segment will feature New York Rangers’ unrestricted free agents Andre Deveaux and Steve Eminger.

New York Rangers: Should I Stay or Should I Go? 2012

This series discusses New York Rangers' players who are currently unrestricted or restricted free agents, examining their unique situations from the player’s point of view.  Today we begin with unrestricted free agent Left Wings Ruslan Fedotenko and Sean Avery.

Ruslan Fedotenko, Forward

Reasons to Stay:
Rangers are strong enough to compete for a Stanley Cup.  It’s pretty cool when you win one of those.  His previous contract with the club paid him $1.4 Million, a yearly salary that most of us would cut off a finger for.  He is comfortable playing for Rangers’ Head Coach John Tortorella, who is known to be a demanding taskmaster.

Reasons to Leave:
You would be hard pressed to come up with any, unless he is considering retirement.

Analysis:
In his two seasons in Manhattan, the 33 year-old Fedotenko has been a fine servant of the club.  Over the course of his professional career, Fedotenko can be counted upon to play 65 to 75 games.  This establishes his durability and also his quality (regular selection in the first team). He can be expected to score somewhere in the neighborhood of 10-15 goals and 15-30 points based on recent form.  Resistance to injury, experience, and scoring make him an asset to any team intelligent enough to sign or re-sign him.  In addition to his skillful hands, Fedotenko plays the game with a bit of an edge.  More importantly, He manages to play this moderately rugged style while steering clear of the penalty box.  Fedotenko is a proven pro, and has been an important component in galvanizing the Rangers’ current mix of youthful and experienced personnel.  The Rangers would be foolish to not offer him at least a one-year contract.  Counting against Fedetenko are his age, and the fact that the Rangers organization currently has 9 left wings under contract, many of whom are young and hungry to prove themselves.

Speculation:
Rangers offer Fedotenko a contract for one year in the range of $1.5-1.7 million.  This contract offer will likely contain incentive bonuses.  Fedotenko will intelligently sign and bolster his bank account accordingly.

Sean Avery, Forward

Reasons to Stay:
I can’t think of any, unless he can somehow regain respect and trust from Rangers’ management.

Reasons to Leave:
Tortorella has washed him out of the Rangers’ lineup.  At one point, it was essentially stated that Avery’s services were no longer needed, and that he needn’t attend training any longer.  What makes the last sentence interesting is that it was decided during the AHL season.  Clearly all bridges have been burned in the New York Rangers organization, and Avery has been blackballed as a toxic liability.

Analysis:
When you look at the numbers, Avery, 32, is a player that has produced rather consistent results on the ice.  In fact Avery scored 3 goals for the Rangers in the 2011-12 season.  This is a statistic made more remarkable that he did so in only ten minutes of ice time.  Off the ice, it’s been a completely different matter, and the notorious incidents he has generated are too many to list.  Avery, when focused and controlling his aggression, is a very good hockey player that can score, pass, check, agitate, and skate with pace.  His actions and statements on and off the ice, however, have irreparably damaged his relationships with Rangers’ management.  Avery publicly stated that he had retired from hockey, but apparently his agent said he was joking.

Speculation:
The Avery scenario suggests that there are two likely resolutions.  The more plausible one is that Avery retires from hockey and pursues his interests, which include fashion writing, and collecting wines.  The other possibility is the revenge game, less plausible as revenge requires focus, commitment, and motivation.  Avery, aided by his agent, signs with one of the Rangers’ major rivals (New Jersey, NY Islanders, or Philadelphia) for the sole purpose of making it his mission in life to generate a never ending source of misery for Tortorella and the NY Rangers organization.  Tortorella’s low opinion of Avery is a matter of public record.  The Rangers will not tender a contract offer to Avery, for the purpose of releasing him from the organization.  Having said this, professional ice hockey is a game of heroes and villains, and just as in comic books, villains never quite disappear…



Tomorrow’s segment will feature New York Rangers’ Unrestricted Free Agents John Mitchell, and Kris Newbury.

New York Rangers: Should I Stay or Should I Go?

The final segment features restricted free agents Matt McCue & Pavel Valentenko.


Matt McCue, Defense/Left Wing

Reasons to stay – A contract offer of any kind from the Rangers means they’re still interested in McCue.

Reasons to leave – None.

Analysis – Played in 43 games for the Dayton Gems of the CHL. Did not get any matches at the ECHL or AHL level.

Speculation – McCue seems to have fallen off of the club’s radar. With so many young forwards heading up to Connecticut for this fall, you have to wonder where a player like McCue will fit in. I anticipate that no contract will be offered to McCue for the purpose of releasing him from the club.


Pavel Valentenko, Defense

Reasons to stay – Is getting close, so close, to breaking into the Rangers’ 7 defense spots.

Reasons to leave – Maybe doesn’t want to sign a two-way NHL contract at 27 years old. Absence of a substantial AHL raise on a two-way contract offer. Probably has a place to go play in the KHL for a better wage than the $62.5K U.S. he was making at Connecticut.

Analysis – After two seasons of part time duty at Dynamo Moscow, Valentenko put together a very sharp year at the Wolf Pack/Whale. Played 79 matches scoring 17 points and was +21. Played all 6 Calder Cup matches for the Whale. Valentenko can expect to press for a place amongst the current log jam of qualified defensemen this fall at the Rangers’ training camp. Valentenko has not once played for the New York Rangers.

Speculation – The Rangers would be foolish to not retain the services of Valentenko, 23, who is putting in the yeoman’s work to earn a place with the New York Rangers. Rangers offer Valentenko a two-way deal with significant AHL pay bump. If Valentenko and his agent balk at the Rangers’ offer, Sather might try to deal the rights to Valentenko at the draft in an attempt to gain an early round pick.


This ends this summer's edition of Should I Stay or Should I Go? Stay tuned, watch this space.