New York Rangers: Should I Stay or Should I Go? 2012

This series discusses New York Rangers' players who are currently unrestricted or restricted free agents, examining their unique situations from the player’s point of view.  Today we examine the situations of unrestricted free agents John Mitchell and Kris Newbury.

John Mitchell, Center

Reasons to Stay:
Played 63 games with the Rangers this year and was solid, if unspectacular.  Rangers are truly competing for the Stanley Cup now.  The club seems to need him to win face-offs.

Reasons to Leave:
Plays only 10 minutes a game.  At 27 years-old, Mitchell is unlikely to be pleased with a two-way contract offer.  The Rangers currently have a dozen players under contract that play his position.

Analysis:
John Mitchell is a checking center, that can win face-offs.  He plays about 10 minutes a game.  He is a plus player.  He is good for around 15 points a season.  He hits, and can go to the net.  Outside of these things, John Mitchell’s game is ordinary.  His future with the Rangers depends on how quickly the Rangers’ young prospects develop that play his position.

Speculation:
The Rangers as a team, aren’t that great at winning face-offs.  As long as none of the Rangers’ youthful prospects can better Mitchell’s skill set, his job is probably safe.  The Rangers offer Mitchell roughly the same money as before on a 1 or 2-year deal.  If the club’s young centers aren’t ready, he’ll continue to play with the Rangers.  If Mitchell falters, or begins to get outplayed by younger players, he will see time on the farm at Hartford, and perhaps find himself on the trading block.


Kris Newbury, Center

Reasons to Stay:
If he is offered a renewal of his current contract, things aren’t likely to get much better at age 30.

Reasons to Leave:
Change of venue.  May feel he is toiling in the vacuum of the AHL with no reward in sight.

Analysis:
Newbury is a point-a-game player in the AHL.  The Connecticut Whale need him.  He is experienced, and physical (averages about 3 minutes a game in penalties).  Having said this, Newbury has only scored 1 assist in 18 matches for the Rangers over the last two seasons, and has trouble staying out of the penalty box.  Although the Whale can’t spare him, the Rangers can.  He has never scored more than 2 goals in an NHL season.  The Rangers need Newbury as an injury fill-in, and to continue lighting the lamp in the AHL.

Speculation:
Rangers will offer Newbury a deal.  Probably a 1-year renewal of his current contract.  At this point in his career it may be the best offer he will get.  Should Newbury begin to get consistently outplayed by one of the young prospects,  he may become expendable.


Tomorrow’s segment will feature New York Rangers’ unrestricted free agents Andre Deveaux and Steve Eminger.

New York Rangers: Should I Stay or Should I Go? 2012

This series discusses New York Rangers' players who are currently unrestricted or restricted free agents, examining their unique situations from the player’s point of view.  Today we begin with unrestricted free agent Left Wings Ruslan Fedotenko and Sean Avery.

Ruslan Fedotenko, Forward

Reasons to Stay:
Rangers are strong enough to compete for a Stanley Cup.  It’s pretty cool when you win one of those.  His previous contract with the club paid him $1.4 Million, a yearly salary that most of us would cut off a finger for.  He is comfortable playing for Rangers’ Head Coach John Tortorella, who is known to be a demanding taskmaster.

Reasons to Leave:
You would be hard pressed to come up with any, unless he is considering retirement.

Analysis:
In his two seasons in Manhattan, the 33 year-old Fedotenko has been a fine servant of the club.  Over the course of his professional career, Fedotenko can be counted upon to play 65 to 75 games.  This establishes his durability and also his quality (regular selection in the first team). He can be expected to score somewhere in the neighborhood of 10-15 goals and 15-30 points based on recent form.  Resistance to injury, experience, and scoring make him an asset to any team intelligent enough to sign or re-sign him.  In addition to his skillful hands, Fedotenko plays the game with a bit of an edge.  More importantly, He manages to play this moderately rugged style while steering clear of the penalty box.  Fedotenko is a proven pro, and has been an important component in galvanizing the Rangers’ current mix of youthful and experienced personnel.  The Rangers would be foolish to not offer him at least a one-year contract.  Counting against Fedetenko are his age, and the fact that the Rangers organization currently has 9 left wings under contract, many of whom are young and hungry to prove themselves.

Speculation:
Rangers offer Fedotenko a contract for one year in the range of $1.5-1.7 million.  This contract offer will likely contain incentive bonuses.  Fedotenko will intelligently sign and bolster his bank account accordingly.

Sean Avery, Forward

Reasons to Stay:
I can’t think of any, unless he can somehow regain respect and trust from Rangers’ management.

Reasons to Leave:
Tortorella has washed him out of the Rangers’ lineup.  At one point, it was essentially stated that Avery’s services were no longer needed, and that he needn’t attend training any longer.  What makes the last sentence interesting is that it was decided during the AHL season.  Clearly all bridges have been burned in the New York Rangers organization, and Avery has been blackballed as a toxic liability.

Analysis:
When you look at the numbers, Avery, 32, is a player that has produced rather consistent results on the ice.  In fact Avery scored 3 goals for the Rangers in the 2011-12 season.  This is a statistic made more remarkable that he did so in only ten minutes of ice time.  Off the ice, it’s been a completely different matter, and the notorious incidents he has generated are too many to list.  Avery, when focused and controlling his aggression, is a very good hockey player that can score, pass, check, agitate, and skate with pace.  His actions and statements on and off the ice, however, have irreparably damaged his relationships with Rangers’ management.  Avery publicly stated that he had retired from hockey, but apparently his agent said he was joking.

Speculation:
The Avery scenario suggests that there are two likely resolutions.  The more plausible one is that Avery retires from hockey and pursues his interests, which include fashion writing, and collecting wines.  The other possibility is the revenge game, less plausible as revenge requires focus, commitment, and motivation.  Avery, aided by his agent, signs with one of the Rangers’ major rivals (New Jersey, NY Islanders, or Philadelphia) for the sole purpose of making it his mission in life to generate a never ending source of misery for Tortorella and the NY Rangers organization.  Tortorella’s low opinion of Avery is a matter of public record.  The Rangers will not tender a contract offer to Avery, for the purpose of releasing him from the organization.  Having said this, professional ice hockey is a game of heroes and villains, and just as in comic books, villains never quite disappear…



Tomorrow’s segment will feature New York Rangers’ Unrestricted Free Agents John Mitchell, and Kris Newbury.

New York Rangers: Should I Stay or Should I Go?

The final segment features restricted free agents Matt McCue & Pavel Valentenko.


Matt McCue, Defense/Left Wing

Reasons to stay – A contract offer of any kind from the Rangers means they’re still interested in McCue.

Reasons to leave – None.

Analysis – Played in 43 games for the Dayton Gems of the CHL. Did not get any matches at the ECHL or AHL level.

Speculation – McCue seems to have fallen off of the club’s radar. With so many young forwards heading up to Connecticut for this fall, you have to wonder where a player like McCue will fit in. I anticipate that no contract will be offered to McCue for the purpose of releasing him from the club.


Pavel Valentenko, Defense

Reasons to stay – Is getting close, so close, to breaking into the Rangers’ 7 defense spots.

Reasons to leave – Maybe doesn’t want to sign a two-way NHL contract at 27 years old. Absence of a substantial AHL raise on a two-way contract offer. Probably has a place to go play in the KHL for a better wage than the $62.5K U.S. he was making at Connecticut.

Analysis – After two seasons of part time duty at Dynamo Moscow, Valentenko put together a very sharp year at the Wolf Pack/Whale. Played 79 matches scoring 17 points and was +21. Played all 6 Calder Cup matches for the Whale. Valentenko can expect to press for a place amongst the current log jam of qualified defensemen this fall at the Rangers’ training camp. Valentenko has not once played for the New York Rangers.

Speculation – The Rangers would be foolish to not retain the services of Valentenko, 23, who is putting in the yeoman’s work to earn a place with the New York Rangers. Rangers offer Valentenko a two-way deal with significant AHL pay bump. If Valentenko and his agent balk at the Rangers’ offer, Sather might try to deal the rights to Valentenko at the draft in an attempt to gain an early round pick.


This ends this summer's edition of Should I Stay or Should I Go? Stay tuned, watch this space.

New York Rangers: Should I Stay or Should I Go?

This feature examines the free agent scenario of New Y0rk Rangers players that are currently out of contract. Today's segment examines the situations of John Mitchell & Tysen Dowzak.


John Mitchell, Center/Wing

Reasons to stay – Thinks the Rangers are on their way to a brighter future and wants to be a part of it.

Reasons to leave – Mitchell, 26, probably doesn’t want to sign a two-way contract at this stage in his career.

Analysis – Although Mitchell has 159 NHL matches under his belt, he finished the year with the Connecticut Whale in the AHL where he scored 12 points in 14 games. He did not once play for the Rangers last season. Mitchell is a lower line forward. The Rangers have a ton of depth with this type of player, but not so many with the amount of NHL match experience that Mitchell has. The Rangers picked up Mitchell from Toronto late in February for a 7th round 2012 draft pick. Mitchell was a playoff ace for the Whale playing all 6 Calder Cup games scoring 6 points along the way. His NHL point production curve has plummeted over his three NHL seasons.

Speculation – All depends on whether the Rangers believe that Mitchell is in their future plans and/or which other free agent forwards leave the club. He will likely have to sign a two-way contract to stay in New York if all the other forwards stay. At the age of 26 I doubt Mitchell has any intention of signing a two-way deal. Club and player may choose to part ways.



Tysen Dowzak, Defense

Reasons to stay – If the Rangers offer Dowzak any sort of deal at all, he should sign quickly before the club changes its mind.

Reasons to leave – None. The Rangers are nurturing a long-term project with Dowzak. He needs the Rangers more than the Rangers need him.

Analysis – Dowzak, 23, played the entire 2010-11 season with the Dayton Gems of the CHL. He is a prospect that is falling off of the Rangers’ radar quickly. The Rangers have a ton of depth at defense.

Speculation – Rangers allow Dowzak to remain a restricted free agent as a means of releasing him from the organization.


Tomorrow's final segment of "Should I Stay or Should I Go?" features RFAs Matt McCue & Pavel Valentenko.

New York Rangers: Should I Stay or Should I Go?

This series examines the free agent scenarios of New York Rangers players who are currently out of contract. Today we examine restricted free agents Justin Soryal & Brodie Dupont.


Justin Soryal, Left Wing

Reasons to stay – If offered a contract, it would be sensible to re-sign, as Soryal’s numbers might not float him to a new pro hockey destination. As a restricted free agent, has very little bargaining power.

Reasons to leave – Considering retirement from hockey. Thinks he can get a better deal from another team.

Analysis – Soryal, 23, is currently a fringe player in the Rangers’ organization. He is a very hard character and handles part of the policing duties on the Wolf Pack/Whale. In his 3 AHL pro seasons, Soryal has been unable to match his best scoring numbers from his junior days at Peterboro. It seems the hope here, as it is with DiDomete, was that Soryal would not only bring his toughness from junior but also some of his offensive ability. In 3 seasons with the Wolf Pack/Whale (189 games) Soryal has managed a total of 11 goals, 14 assists for 25 points and 493 minutes in penalties. Soryal was a scratch in 5 of his club’s 6 Calder Cup Finals matches this year.

Speculation – If the Rangers believe that Soryal can develop enough to contribute more offensively and/or that he is a must have as an enforcer Soryal will be offered a contract. If the Rangers feel they have many redundancies in the enforcer department, Soryal may be allowed to remain a free agent as a means of releasing him from the club. Soryal gets offered either a one year contract, or isn’t offered a contract at all.



Brodie Dupont, Center/Left Wing

Reasons to stay – At 24, Dupont is a mainstay player for the Rangers’ AHL affiliate. His AHL salary at the end of his contract was $75K/year, this is a good real-world salary. Got his first game with the parent club during the Rangers’ winter injury difficulties. As restricted free agent he has little bargaining power.

Reasons to leave – Has toiled on the farm for 4 seasons and only has one NHL game to show for it. Thinks he can get a better deal from another club.

Analysis – Has played 297 games for the Wolf Pack/Whale posting numbers of 58 goals, 90 assists for 148 points with 389 minutes in penalties. With AHL goal totals in the range of 9-18 and points in the range of 22-45, Dupont has established himself as a gritty and consistent player who can make decent offensive contributions. Played in all 6 of the Whale's Calder Cup Finals matches. Seems to have the confidence of management going forward as he got his first NHL game this last season. Essentially the club likes Dupont’s work rate, scoring, and consistency.

Speculation – Dupont will likely be offered the same contract or one with a slight AHL raise. The deal must be two-way and will likely have no increase for the NHL salary level. I expect Dupont will be offered a deal for 2-3 years duration.


Tomorrow's segment will have a look at the free agent scenarios of RFAs John Mitchell & Tyson Dowzak.

New York Rangers: Should I Stay or Should I Go?

This is a segment in a series examining the New York Rangers free agent scenarios. Today we examine the restricted free agents Dale Weise & Devin DiDiomete.


Dale Weise, Right Wing

Reasons to stay – At 22 years-old he still has time to hone his skills in the AHL and think things through. The Rangers seem to be keen on Weise, so it would benefit him to flow with the program.

Reasons to leave – Weise is a player who has scored a bunch at the AHL level, and has a fair amount of grit to his game. His AHL salary is $65K, and there might be other teams willing to offer more and nurture Weise’s development to his target role as NHL checking line player.

Analysis – Weise has played well in his three seasons for the Wolf Pack/Whale and earned enough confidence from management to be an injury replacement for 10 games with the parent club this season. Made no offensive contribution at pro level, with a penchant for taking knucklehead penalties, and needs more seasoning in the nutmeg state. An intimidating and uncompromising player, Weise will have a blue sweater waiting when his offensive numbers and discipline in the AHL translate to his game in the NHL.

Speculation – Weise signs a deal for what he currently makes or a bit more for a duration of probably 2 years.


Devin DiDiomete, Left Wing

Reasons to stay – Perhaps there is not so much league interest for this player. A second chance to work on the offensive part of his game.

Reasons to leave – Considering retirement from pro hockey. Thinks he can do better than the Rangers’ offer in free agency. I heard that DiDiomete got to help call some games with the Wolf Pack’s/Whale’s broadcasters and acquitted himself very well, perhaps Devin’s destiny lies in broacasting.

Analysis – The Rangers saw a rugged player with a two-way game when they drafted him out of the OHL’s Sarnia Sting where DiDiomete posted personal a personal best season in goals, assists, & points with 23-33 56 and 216 minutes in penalties. In his 3 year AHL career DiDiomete has only managed a total of 10 goals, 11 assists, and 661 penalty minutes in 170 matches with the Hartford Wolf Pack/Connecticut Whale. Both the Rangers and the Whale have players that can not only handle the policing duties, but can also score and set up goals.

Speculation – The Whale are about to get reinforced with some pretty good talent. I don’t foresee that there will be enough ice time to go around. Although DiDiomete has unquestionable prominence in the heart department, it probably won’t be enough this time around to earn a contract. The Rangers organization will likely let the young left wing explore restricted free agency as a way of releasing him from the club.


Tomorrow's segment will discuss the restricted free agents Justin Soryal & Brodie Dupont.

New York Rangers: Should I Stay or Should I Go?

Today's segment explores the predicaments of Ranger's restricted free agents Stu Bickel & Chad Johnson.

Stu Bickel, Defense

Reasons to stay – For now, has a regular place in the team with the Connecticut Whale in the AHL.

Reasons to leave – At 24 years of age, Bickel may be looking to take his rugged style of play to a club that needs a first team player. Would probably like an AHL salary better than $62,500. The Rangers have a several defensemen in the system and promotion to New York from the farm seems currently out of reach.

Analysis – This season was the first where Bickel played close to a full AHL season(60 games between Syracuse and Hartford/Connecticut). Performed reasonably well, but nothing outstanding. Bickel is super rugged - a very hard player.

Speculation – The Rangers would be smart to retain Bickel, but he’s going to want an AHL raise. The contract will have to be two-way, but the AHL salary is going to have to go up if the club is serious about him. Bickel will probably sign a 1-2 year deal for in the range of NHL $875K/AHL $70-85K. The leverage is in the hands of the club, so probably not a big raise. Redden, Parlett, Niemi, Valentenko, Nightingale, Kundratek, maybe Del Zotto, and McIlrath will all be needing minutes, who will have a chair to sit down in when the music stops?


Chad Johnson, Goaltender

Reasons to stay – Johnson carries the bulk of the load in minutes played for the Connecticut Whale. Johnson may be able to position himself as the Rangers’ new backup. As restricted free agent, he may not have a lot of options to move.

Reasons to leave – At 24 years old, he has to be wondering if he’s going to become an NHL player or a career AHL player.

Analysis – Though he has 87 games and 40 wins under his belt for the Wolf Pack/Whale, he has only appeared 6 times for the parent club – acquitting himself quite well when called upon with 1 win, 2 losses, with an overtime result, a .911 save percentage and a 2.59 goals against average. Was at entry level AHL salary of $62,500 at the end of his contract. Clearly Johnson is good at stopping pucks.

Speculation – Johnson is only behind Rangers’ backup Martin Biron on the organizations depth chart. Although the Rangers’ number one goalie Henrik Lundqvist is on a long term contract, Martin Biron’s expires after the 2010-11 season. If the Rangers are unable to or unwilling to re-sign Biron, Johnson may get his chance to join the Rangers’ squad. Rangers will offer a reasonable if unspectacular two-way deal and in all likelihood Johnson will sign.


In tomorrow's segment we examine Rangers' restricted free agents Dale Weise & Devin DiDiomete.

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UPDATE - The New York Daily News has reported that the New York Rangers intend to buy out the contract of center and captain Chris Drury.